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Confidence Lost, Justification Reclaimed: A New Diagnosis for the Lottery Paradox
* : Auteur correspondant
A common assumption within the Lottery Paradox debate is that we are confused about epistemic justification and, hence, should revise our intuitive, but a paradox-generating understanding of it. This paper revisits this assumption. It is argued here that we have good reasons for thinking that it is not the case that the Lottery Paradox arises from our confusion about epistemic
justification. Rather the paradox seems to stem from our confusion about belief and confidence. A hypothesis as to how exactly the confusion goes is proposed and explored on the basis of the recent work on gradable adjectives.
